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Election time
So the big election south of the border wasn’t as close, after all, as all the pollsters were making it out to be. The popular vote was a bit of a squeaker, although at our press time the incumbent, Mr. Obama, was starting to pull away in those numbers as well, but in the U.S. the popular vote doesn’t mean much in the crunch. The important thing is the good old medieval Electoral College, which means that in 48 out of 50 states (Nebraska and Maine being the only two that allot their electoral votes proportionally), the top vote-getter gets every single one of that state’s votes. In California, for instance, if Barack got just one more vote than Mitt, he would get all 55 electoral votes while his opponent got zilch. Heck of a system. As it turned out, of course, Obama did a whole lot better than that in California, walloping Romney by almost a million votes, but in theory....
At any rate, the final Electoral College tally looks to be about 332 to 206 for Obama, not really close at all. Not only did the President get most of the so-called “swing states”, he got most of the big ones, too, handily taking places like New York and Illinois while Mitt was waxing him in low-density places like Montana and Alaska. About the only big state that went Romney’s way was Texas, and the Bushes would have had to leave if it turned out otherwise.
So now all the fuss is over across the border, we can get down to our own mini-election, with federal by-elections taking place on Nov. 26 in Calgary, Victoria and right here in Durham. Like many by-elections, these ones won’t alter the standings in the House of Commons, but they might be a gauge of how folks are feeling about the Harper majority 18 months down the road (or perhaps how they feel about Tom Mulcair or Justin Trudeau). The Calgary and Durham seats were Tory ones, the Victoria one belonged to the NDP.
Here in Durham, we’ve settled down to six candidates. Liberal Grant Humes, Andrew Moriarity for Christian Heritage, and the Greens’ Virginia Ervin have all run in Durham before, not very successfully, but Trudeau and Elizabeth May, particularly if they pop by during the campaign, could up their visibility considerably. Larry O’Connor of the NDP is a blast from the past, with more polirtical experience than all the rest put together. If he could persuade Mulcair to knock on a few doors with him, he could make it very close indeed. And the two rookies here are fascinating ones - Erin o’Toole, son of our MPP, for the Tories, and Michael Nicula, the Toronto leader of a new group called the Online Party. A very interesting sextet.
Since we’re going to be represented by the winner for almost three years in Ottawa, it would be wrong of you to dismiss this vote as less important than a regular election. So vote by all means, and make your vote a more educated one by coming out to the Cosmos all-candidates meeting next Monday, Nov. 12, at the Arena Community Centre.
We predict a lively debate; you wouldn’t want to miss that. And you certainly would kick yourself if any of the party leaders show up - they often do during by-elections - and you weren’t there to get an autograph. See you Monday.
July 14, 2011
